The Big Wet

[brumby33]

Well we had nearly 3 years of relentless wet weather and floods since early 2020 with record floods in some areas that hadn't seen floods in decades and we were told that an EL-NINO event was active now in Australia and mid last year we were told that it was going to be a long hot dry Summer.....BUT.....

It hasn't been at all, We had that early Cyclone over Northern QLD that has caused a lot of rain to fall from Cairns all the way down through to the Tweed, Brisbane and Gold Coast copping huge downpours and flash flooding.

But it's also Victoria that's been copping the rain once again. Generally this time of the year Victoria, especially Central West Vic is normally Hot and dry but it's once again subjected to flooding, maybe not as bad as it was 2 years ago but still, the rain just keeps coming.

I seen on the news that Bendigo copped a lot of localised flooding over the last weekend just gone, Warthog, may be able to confirm how bad it was.....maybe not much gravel biking till it dries out a bit.

As you guys know, I now live in the Albury area and even though Victoria especially the Northern part has copped a lot of rain, we haven't had it so bad here, yes we've had rainy days and when you look at the BOM radar charts, it's looks like we're going to cop it hard as well but we get very little or it goes around us whereas less than an hour down the road at Wangaratta, cops a lot of flash flooding that we here don't see at this point. Maybe it's got something to do with the surrounding mountain ranges that Albury tends to miss this really bad weather. I realise i haven't lived in this region long enough to experience the weather patterns down here compared to what I've used to from Sydney.

Usually an EL-NINO event will give us droughts and yeah they could still come I guess, Australia is know for it's crazy weather patterns so i don't really believe it's all Global warming or climate Change as it's always changing but to have so much rain over a vast period of leading into the 4th year isn't usual, even for Australia.
I think what's a bit different is the amount of Storm activity around at present, it's been some time since so much storm activity has affected a wide area.

Anyway I guess some of you are feeling it too and it'll be interesting on how it is in your area. flooding, storms etc. Rivers, creeks...has anyone been stranded?

Cheers

brumby33

[warthog1]

I haven't been into town much recently. A few days ago was the last time and all was fine. A lot of rain over the last 48hrs though.
Have been riding road on the gravel bike with road tyres lately.
Back up to Rochester for work this arvo. I am worried how the poor buggers up there are going.

[Tim]

I was listening to a BOM climate scientist on the radio a few days ago.
An El Nino event isn't defined by very hot and dry weather in Eastern Australia. Typically this is a result, or symptom, if you like, of an El Nino but not what El Nino actually is.
El Nino events are defined by cold currents of water traveling towards our east coast, across the South Pacific Ocean from South America. Quite often when that cold water arrives here the result is less atmospheric moisture on the East Coast (put very simply). This time however, the cold water is being blocked offshore by an unusually and exceptionally warm body of water spanning the entire east coast. Warm ocean temperature spells high atmospheric moisture and wet unstable air over our east.
This is a simplified explanation but basically that's what's happening.
For the misinformed and uninformed climate deniers it's an opportunity to once again cast doubt on the scientific process and knowledge. And once again they are wrong.

[warthog1]

I was listening to a BOM climate scientist on the radio a few days ago.
An El Nino event isn't defined by very hot and dry weather in Eastern Australia. Typically this is a result, or symptom, if you like, of an El Nino but not what El Nino actually is.
El Nino events are defined by cold currents of water traveling towards our east coast, across the South Pacific Ocean from South America. Quite often when that cold water arrives here the result is less atmospheric moisture on the East Coast (put very simply). This time however, the cold water is being blocked offshore by an unusually and exceptionally warm body of water spanning the entire east coast. Warm ocean temperature spells high atmospheric moisture and wet unstable air over our east.
This is a simplified explanation but basically that's what's happening.
For the misinformed and uninformed climate deniers it's an opportunity to once again cast doubt on the scientific process and knowledge. And once again they are wrong.

Yep climate change...no such thing... it's all a greens conspiracy
On the R wing patrol forum.
https://www.patrol4x4.com/threads/clima ... 3/#replies
Great for tech advice, the rest of it is basically Sky news informed.

[familyguy]

It's getting more regular. 1 in 10 year events are now yearly, if not more often. We've had one premises (Riverina district, NSW) have FOUR 1 in 50 year events in the last 2 years. For a premises not built to take that much rainfall, it's causing massive issues and headaches for everyone concerned.

I'm rather happy we didn't go forward with a planned school development on the north coast now. It was 100% underwater last week.

[MichaelB]

I feel for those copping it. Heard on the radio the other day that somewhere near Gold Coast copped 76mm of rain in 30 minutes

Even in little old Radelaide, we have copped so much more rain than normal for us after a rather dry spring. We've had our rain water tanks refilled from empty (17,000 litres in total) 3 times in Dec and once again in Jan ! And whilst the numbers below are SFA compared to what is seen up North, it's still crazy

Oct 2023 - 11.6mm rec'd, vs 44.1mm average (25% of normal)
Nov 2023 - 60.6mm rec'd, vs 31.1mm average (double average)
Nov 2023 - 73.4mm rec'd, vs 25.8mm average (triple the average)
Jan 2024 - 13.6mm rec'd (to 8th Jan), vs 20.0mm average for the month

But the HUMIDITY has been crazy !!! We're used to 5 - 10% in summer, and the other day it was 92% - and working on finishing lining the shed, I was sweating like you wouldn't believe.

Hope all are OK and stay out of trouble

[Mr Purple]

Yep climate change...no such thing... it's all a greens conspiracy
On the R wing patrol forum.
https://www.patrol4x4.com/threads/clima ... 3/#replies
Great for tech advice, the rest of it is basically Sky news informed.

The inability of morons to understand that 'global warming' does not mean you won't get cold days is unbelievable.

The problem as I see it is global warming leads to too much energy in the system. So you get increasingly unpredictable weather variations, more/less rain, more random unseasonal variation and more natural disasters. All of which seem to be happening. The average temperature does also go up, but not inexorably, you will still get cold weather due to the increased variations.

Seeing more weather like that up here in Brisbane - a lot of it just feels 'unnatural'.

Loads of rain up here. Got caught in a massive downpour on the commute home from work on Saturday and had my first crash on the road bike in a year or so. Nothing major, just a really slippery roundabout at low speed. Mind you it was so slippery it didn't even hurt or damage anything when I fell (except for my dignity).

This is why the Greens scored multiple seats in our last federal election. We had just come off on a crazy run of 'unnaturally' extreme weather and I think people were looking for solution or to blame someone. Not sure that voting green has any chance of fixing that but can understand why it happened.

[vbplease]

The inability of morons to understand that 'global warming' does not mean you won't get cold days is unbelievable.

I think it stems from having a strong motivation to support a preconceived bias.. usually politically motivated, or in the case of my parents, religiously motivated. Their stubbornness in ignoring modern science, while researching other garbage to support their preconceived bias, is quite breath taking.

I've spent a bit of time up in Cairns lately (I'm an engineer in the insurance industry) and the heat and humidity is next level.. 20mins after getting out the car, I'm sweating as much as when I'm sitting in the sauna for 10mins.. they tell me February is a lot worse They've copped it pretty bad up there.. lots of landslides, tree impacted homes, suburbs flooded up to roof level where they got rescued by boat.. meanwhile battling fast flowing water and crocs

[jasonc]

no good about the crash Mr Purple. definitely need to watch for oil patches on the road (watch out for the sylvan rd/land st slip lane. that's always slippery

Michael - up here in Qld it's not unusual to get 100mm in an hour with a storm. we don't really worry till it's over 200mm in a day (and storms don't usually hang around for longer than an hour)

[cyclotaur]

It's pretty simple - long-term global atmospheric warming leads to more medium-term climate variability which leads to more short-term weather variability, including extreme localised weather events.

Extreme rain events in mid-summer and increasingly mild winters actually reinforce the theory of long term-global atmospheric warming. Otherwise most summers in SE Australia would be warm and dry, and winters cool and wet. Like in the good ol' days.

[Mr Purple]

no good about the crash Mr Purple. definitely need to watch for oil patches on the road (watch out for the sylvan rd/land st slip lane. that's always slippery

Thanks Jason. I suspect there was oil involved, it was a little bit off camber, plus it was also very gusty.

There was no chance, I remember thinking 'this is going to be slippery' and slowing down to under 10km/hr to get through it. Next I know I was lying on the road.

Mind you it was so slippery I just kept on sliding when I got there. Somehow got the obligatory mild graze on my right hip without damaging the knicks even the slightest. Bike copped a slight graze to the RD and that was about it.

[Andy01]

I was expecting a dry summer as well, but it isn't turning out that way really - at least not in Brisbane.

I have been recording rainfall at my house in Brisbane since 2002. For the months October, November & December (added together);

2023 - 324mm
2022 - 215mm
2021 - 538mm
2020 - 262mm
2019 - 144mm
2018 - 262mm
2017 - 426mm
2016 - 133mm
2015 - 190mm
2014 - 185mm
2013 - 212mm
2012 - 144mm
2011 - 304mm
2010 - 757mm
2009 - 342mm
2008 - 365mm
2007 - 256mm
2006 - 136mm
2005 - 361mm
2004 - 538mm
2003 - 247mm
2002 - 195mm

So, the average rainfall (for this 3 month period) over these 22 years is 297mm, so it turns out that 2023 (October to December) was only slightly above average. It was, however, the 5th wettest December in that period. It will be interesting to see what the rest of summer does - the predictions seem to indicate that it will "dry up" from later February 2024.

[Cyclophiliac]

60mm of rain at the Scoresby weather station (the closest to me in Melbourne) since midnight: pretty unusual for mid-summer, but then 'usual' is being redefined rapidly, thanks to the anthropogenic climate change that moron trolls such as Andrew Bolt keep insisting doesn't exist.

[brumby33]

I think describing people as Morons just because they don't prescribe to a common way of thinking is really a bit nasty, but have you ever thought there could be a supernatural cause to much of the changes we are experiencing?
People call it modern science, but science has been wrong many times till they can prove otherwise. Scientists after all are only human and have only a certain amount of knowledge of the way things are and that is often changing as well, but would they have the knowledge as say a Supernatural being, lets call him God who by the bible created the Universe, our solar system and our planet.....why Earth? Because it had the temperature variances less extreme to sustain life. There's possibly more planets in our solar system past Pluto, but our human science has yet to find them.
There's been many occasions over the past century where science has been pitted against biblical happenings and many times Scientist have declared it could be possible. stuff like the epic Noah's flood where every land mass was covered by water and that the ark was built over a long period of time to house 2 each many species, male and female. Everything on Earth except those who were on the ark perished in the flood. There's been many fossilised creatures since the past 100 years been dug up as a cause of that flood which buried them around 4,000 years ago. Not as long ago as many think.

While I agree that Humans with the Industrial revolution, motor vehicles and fossil fuels may not have helped much but if that was the case, from the use of coal, oil and gases, the tonnes of Carbon Monoxide that has been spewed into the atmosphere over the past 120 years, not to mention tragic bushfires and other toxic fires, the Wars involving bombs, including Nuclear tests and atomic attacks in WW2 and all other warfare that has plagued the Earth since firearm power have been in use, how is it that humans and animals can still survive this planet? How is it that the planet can continue to regenerate? We should all be dead with all that's going on in our world.

Could perhaps climate change as we know it be caused by a phenomenon outside our planet such as flare activity from the Sun, maybe the moon might have something to do with it, there's a lot of activity in outer space that we have no idea about and may possibly never do.

If a Supernatural power/force etc such as a creator can create the Universe, planet and all things in and on it, then they have the power such as the great flood of Noah to happen. It's a bit like gravity itself, you can't see gravity but you sure can feel it, you can't see air either but we know it's there as we breathe and can feel it as wind, we can't see it only for the dust particles it picks up.

You don't have to believe but it's always a consideration other than the human call of climate change and Global warming that there's something else that can be causing it all in the world we know...or may not know!!

cheers

brumby33

[mikesbytes]

I have wondered if we need to move some smaller towns, Lisbmore comes to mind. The unpredictability makes its it difficult to assess and each time its cheaper to rebuild where it is, though over accumulative events it will be cheaper to have moved the town.

[warthog1]

Brumby we aren't living in the middle ages.
The recorded observations clearly show a rise in temperature. There is science behind the understanding of climate change.
I prefer to accept the science and take the steps advised by that science than explain it by a supernatural force.
As the parent of a daughter with epilepsy if I thought that way there also and didn't follow the science perhaps an exorcism would have been prescribed.

[brumby33]

Brumby we aren't living in the middle ages.
The recorded observations clearly show a rise in temperature. There is science behind the understanding of climate change.
I prefer to accept the science and take the steps advised by that science than explain it by a supernatural force.
As the parent of a daughter with epilepsy if I thought that way there also and didn't follow the science perhaps an exorcism would have been prescribed.

A bit irrational Warty but yeah, just looking at it as a different angle and it's beyond the middle ages, maybe the original language was but it can/determine the future!!

[warthog1]

Brumby we aren't living in the middle ages.
The recorded observations clearly show a rise in temperature. There is science behind the understanding of climate change.
I prefer to accept the science and take the steps advised by that science than explain it by a supernatural force.
As the parent of a daughter with epilepsy if I thought that way there also and didn't follow the science perhaps an exorcism would have been prescribed.

A bit irrational Warty but yeah, just looking at it as a different angle and it's beyond the middle ages, maybe the original language was but it can/determine the future!!

You mentioned Noah's ark and all of the planet's species being herded onto a wooden boat to repopulate the planet after the flood was over.
Consided the practical application of attempting that now let alone back then with a hammer and chisel.
Let alone where did the water come from and where did it go?

I am just saying I prefer objective analysis and understanding to religion.

[brumby33]

Water came from the clouds as usual as well as underground.
Not all species...but many.
Probably went back to where the water originated.
But it did happen and they even found the place where it landed when waters receded.

[warthog1]

Water came from the clouds as usual as well as underground.
Not all species...but many.
Probably went back to where the water originated.
But it did happen and they even found the place where it landed when waters receded.

Good luck to you, and I hope your faith makes you happy.

[elantra]

I have wondered if we need to move some smaller towns, Lisbmore comes to mind. The unpredictability makes its it difficult to assess and each time its cheaper to rebuild where it is, though over accumulative events it will be cheaper to have moved the town.

An interesting conundrum.
In the case of Lismore, it is situated on the Wilson River, which comes down from the “heavy rain generating” mountains on the south side of the Wollumbin volcanic caldera.
Lismore grew at this location in the late 1800’s because it was the furtherest point on this river that was navigable by ships of the era.
The explanation for this logic is that in those days, most significant transport in north coast NSW was by ship - there were no significant roads or railways.

I don’t know the specific arguments for and against whether the Lismore CBD should be “relocated” but a lot of the the residential population of Lismore has sort of relocated anyway over the last few decades.
The “town” of Goonellabah is really just an eastern suburb of Lismore and is located up a very large hill.
It’s a booming area for residential development and understandably so.
These days you don’t need to build suburbs and cities beside a river but this was not the case when most cities in Australia were taking off.
Canberra of course is a notable exception, but It was planned in the era of the motor vehicle and also for a special purpose.

The other problem for Lismore is that the Wilson River flows into the Richmond river which is also prone to flooding. So when the Wilson is in flood and the Richmond is also in flood, the Wilson rises dramatically because its outflow is blocked.
You could argue that it’s just a plumbing nightmare.
Add to that the effects of siltation (from land clearing) and extra runoff (from carparks, roads and roofs etc) and it’s a recipe for lots of floods

[Mr Purple]

Yes, moving some smaller towns is an interesting question.

I grew up in Gympie, notorious for being a place where the river goes up 20m pretty regularly and floods half the town including the main street.

In a way this was just part of life. I remember being in class in primary school where kids would steadily start leaving throughout the day because the bridge that got them home was about to go under. It happens so often everyone knows exactly when they'll flood, and exactly where it floods. My parents once bought a five acre block and sold it again a few months later after they found out it was just under the 1 in 100 year flood level. Exceeded three times since then.

Half of the problem in Gympie could be rectified by bulldozing the main street, making it into a park and relocating the CBD to the top of any number of suitable hills. Yet it still hasn't happened in the past 150 years or so. I have no idea why. Probably just 'too hard'.

[elantra]

I feel for those copping it. Heard on the radio the other day that somewhere near Gold Coast copped 76mm of rain in 30 minutes

Even in little old Radelaide, we have copped so much more rain than normal for us after a rather dry spring. We've had our rain water tanks refilled from empty (17,000 litres in total) 3 times in Dec and once again in Jan ! And whilst the numbers below are SFA compared to what is seen up North, it's still crazy

Oct 2023 - 11.6mm rec'd, vs 44.1mm average (25% of normal)
Nov 2023 - 60.6mm rec'd, vs 31.1mm average (double average)
Nov 2023 - 73.4mm rec'd, vs 25.8mm average (triple the average)
Jan 2024 - 13.6mm rec'd (to 8th Jan), vs 20.0mm average for the month

But the HUMIDITY has been crazy !!! We're used to 5 - 10% in summer, and the other day it was 92% - and working on finishing lining the shed, I was sweating like you wouldn't believe.

Hope all are OK and stay out of trouble

Yeah I sympathise with you.
Adelaide can be so blinking hot in summer.
You don’t need to suffer humidity as well.

Up here at the other end of the “Brisbane line” - that imaginary line drawn across south-east Australia during the crisis year of 1942 - we have the humidity In bucket loads.
But traditionally, most summer days are 30 degrees or less.
Summers are always unpleasant up here but so far this one has been especially unpleasant.
Usually December up here is “tolerable” but this December, most days were 30 or above. Nasty.

And the rain - just the other day there was bucket loads of it. More than 30 cm in less than 24 hours !!!
That’s not what you expect in December !
The problem up here is that January, February, AND March are usually WORSE than December.
And April is usually pretty bad too - because by April you are so damn sick of the humidity and you know that relief is just around the corner - but each day you wake up to HUMIDITY- until all of a sudden the weather turns.
A bit like the famous Bill Murray movie “Groundhog Day” where the anticipation of the chipmunk announcing the start of spring has everyone on edge.
As a general rule of thumb, up this way Groundhog Day is usually late in April- when school goes back after the Easter holiday.
And always preceded by a bit of heavy rain to antagonise the Easter campers.

The most perfect summer’s day that I can recall was a few years ago when I was at Victor Harbour, to see a TDU stage finish.
It was like magic. About 24 degrees and low humidity in the middle of the day.
Warm enough that standing in the sun became “tiresome” because it was a bit warm.
So you would move into the shade, and a few minutes later you would start to feel like it would be nice to stand in the sun… that’s living In paradise !

[zebee]

I have wondered if we need to move some smaller towns, Lisbmore comes to mind. The unpredictability makes its it difficult to assess and each time its cheaper to rebuild where it is, though over accumulative events it will be cheaper to have moved the town.

Lismore was built to take advantage of river transport. And good alluvial soil. At the time the locals warned them of flooding, or so I was told when I lived there.

There are plenty of places built near what was navigable water on the East Coast. No one is sending freight down them now but moving a couple of hundred years of settlement isn't easy. Especially in the modern day when you have to build tarmac roads that can take big trucks and build sewerage systems. Until recently you also needed electrical infrastructure, and probably still do until battery tech is good enough to power somewhere the size of Lismore with factories as well as houses.

[Duck!]

Here in Melbourne I've noticed we're getting a lot more Sydney-style dumpings than we did when I was a kid. The running gag from "Up North" was about how wet it was in Melbourne, which was only half true; while it rained more frequently here, in terms of the quantity of rainfall, our annual average was about half that of Sydney, because we rarely got those massive deluges.

But now we seem to have less frequent rainy days in winter, as well as possibly less overall rainfal, but in summer we're getting pummelled a lot more.l