Could these new Gearbox systems be the eventual demise of the Derailleur?

[brumby33]

Disclaimer: I'm not a tech head but I thought I'd place this discussion here to promote further discussion on these types of gearing Systems. Do you think they may become more common in the future of Cycling?
When compared to the price of a common E-Bike today which you won't get much if any change out of $5K, perhaps having a pinion type gearbox or a Rolhoff style hub may seem like a good investment especially if riding a lot and riding far and wide, or some serious bush bashing. Good investment or not?

https://youtu.be/F08bDBK7U7A

Enclosed type Pinion gearing systems.
Seems to be in the UK and Europe that bicycle gearbox design, primarily in Germany looks to replace the Derailleur.

In many ways I see that it could be a good thing, yes I know the Derailleur system is cheap but less likely to be knocked around during transport and those who ride aggressively through the bush.

Rolhoffs have been around for about 20 plus years now and many riders, especially long distance riders like tourers swear by them although there can be cons especially if they break albeit not common.

Bike frames often have to be re-designed as are hub and wheels, but I've read that having a wider hub not having to accommodate cassettes are a lot stronger than those built with cassettes in mind due to the angle spokes have to be set at.

They are a lot heavier than their derailleur counterparts so maybe not great for light road bike designs, they are expensive to buy and even more so to repair, often having to send the whole deal back to factory. I think road bikes will have some similar system (if not already) that are light, dependable with electric changing within the near future and maybe within 10 years, deraileurs will only be available on department store bikes.

Is there any Companies in Australia that can actually service a Rolhoff or Pinion bicycle gearbox?
That could be a turn off if something went wrong.

For the past 4 years, Bicycle Vlogger Darren Alff aka Bicycle Touring Pro has been travelling around the world on a Co-motion Siskiyu American made Touring bike with the 18 speed Pinion Gearbox and he swears by it, but it's worth to pay around US $8K for it as he travels in all kinds of conditions like snow and sludge all round the world.

Pinion gearboxes are becoming very popular in Europe and when you look at the mid motor designs of E-Bikes, the frames are designed to incorporate the mid usually Bosche motors and it keeps the weight low.

I wonder if within the next 5 years we'll see more of these enclosed gearing systems here in Australia, fitted with the gates belt drive, I reckon that it could be a worthwhile investment. I know that Noel McFarlane has reduced his Vivente deraileur bikes down to 2 models and have increased his Rolhoff models in the present line up these days as he still travels a lot on his Gibb, Rolhoff designed tourer.

brumby33

[RonK]

Not likely- Rolhoff and Pinion have been around for years, as has other internally geared hubs and gearbox systems. They have little market penetration and that’s not going to change.

I built a premium Rohloff touring bike and the ride dynamics among other things were very disappointing.

It’s all documented elsewhere on this forum. You’ll have to go look for it because I’m not going through all the discussion again.

I got rid of it after just one tour and would never have another.

If the Rohloff was as good as their marketing claimed it would indeed be a good thing. But it’s not - it’s overpriced and overrated.

[brumby33]

That was my initial feeling on them as well Ron, before I decided on buying my current bike which is the Patagonia by Vivente bikes, mine is a typical 9 x 3 derailleur model with bar end shifters and no long available new which is a shame but Shimano has discontinued the bar end 9 speed barends now.
Anyway, as I was trying to decide although I knew the brand I wanted, I tried the Rolhoff 14 speed model but these ones had a chain drive as apposed to the current Gates drive and yes, I hated it, in fact I couldn't wait to take it back to the shop after a quick test ride. I don't know what it was but it didn't feel as free as the deraileur but things have changed and now all of the hub geared and pinion geared bikes are using the Gates belt drive belt and I've read it's made the world of difference.

I think the Pinion drive system in the video is focused more towards the high end MTB scene as the spread of gearing doesn't appear to be suitable for long distance like Rolhoff and Pinion 18 speed systems.

brumby33

[skyblot]

There is certainly Rohloff support in Australia, Pinion not that I could find - nearest support agent I could find was in NZ. (I was looking for some oil.) Pinion in Germany were not terribly helpful.

Whether you have a positive of negative experience I think depends on you expectations of the gearboxes. I've fitted a few Rohloff's but haven't had a lot of riding on them - just setup and test really, and they were just as I was expecting. Simple, user friendly ride experience, but certainly not as crisp as a good derailleur setup.

The Pinion though, was a different animal. I didn't gell with it and I don't really know why. Upwards gear changes under load were fine, but down changes were hit and miss depending on load. I read an explanation that the gearbox has several ratchet/pawl arrangements, and when changing gear, the difference in (gear) rotational speeds can make the change easy and slick, or near impossible underload. Changing down was the difficult to hard one, annoying as changing to a lower gear while hill climbing would be really nice if worked well under load.

Both Rohloff and Pinion have good manuals available, but in both cases setting up the gear shift mechanism was troublesome the first time round. The Pinion I found particularly difficult, probably because I replicated the original cable installation and it was wrong... Once the intent of the manual was grasped it all worked, as you would expect.

My thoughts are that internal gear hubs would suit a vast proportion of riders, those that are not performance and tech orientated. Simple to use, robust, low maintenance. Lots of benefit for a minor loss in efficiency - that most people don't care about anyway.

[trailgumby]

I used a Gates belt drive on a singlespeed MTB for awhile. Not a fan. Need to be tensioned up *real* tight or they skip under load. Not great for bearing life.

Gearboxes have been around for something like a hundred years. Like the airless tyre of similar vintage, they solve a problem most people don't care enough about to put up with the downsides of greater mass and efficiency losses. No-one has solved the downsides, despite the constant vaporware in the press and on Kickstarter.

They all promise the end of the derailleur. Still waiting.

Yes, Greg Minaar's Honda World Cup winning Downhill bike had an internal gearbox. It was chain driven, with an internal derailleur.

[Thoglette]

... but Shimano has discontinued the bar end 9 speed barends now.

Shimano are playing a risky game: hurtling headfirst into "motorcyclization" of bicycles (to use Grant Petersen's term) while burning their bridges behind them by discontinuing (or geolocking away) the stuff that 90% of the world actually wants.

It is one thing for the 900# gorilla to say "this is the future!" It is another thing altogether to abandon the market completely. Bar end (Heck, non-electronic) shifters? Rim brakes? Compatiblity with your last 1/4 century of product? Man, that's a big pool to leave your competitors.

Competitors they pretend don't even exist: SunXCD, Velo-Orange, White industries, Wolf Tooth, Rene Herse, Nitto and dozens upon dozens of others. Some doing just one thing, some from last week, some from last century (or in the case of Brooks, the century before).

None of them have any place in Shimano's view of the future. Nor Specialized's

[trailgumby]

... but Shimano has discontinued the bar end 9 speed barends now.

Shimano are playing a risky game: hurtling headfirst into "motorcyclization" of bicycles (to use Grant Petersen's term) while burning their bridges behind them by discontinuing (or geolocking away) the stuff that 90% of the world actually wants.

It is one thing for the 900# gorilla to say "this is the future!" It is another thing altogether to abandon the market completely. Bar end (Heck, non-electronic) shifters? Rim brakes? Compatiblity with your last 1/4 century of product? Man, that's a big pool to leave your competitors.

Competitors they pretend don't even exist: SunXCD, Velo-Orange, White industries, Wolf Tooth, Rene Herse, Nitto and dozens upon dozens of others. Some doing just one thing, some from last week, some from last century (or in the case of Brooks, the century before).

None of them have any place in Shimano's view of the future. Nor Specialized's

They're borrowing from the Intel approach to chip-making.

With China exposing itself as an aggressive disrespecter of the western notion of intellectual property rights, it's too difficult to compete as a least cost operator, so instead they are leveraging off their skillset as a technology developer to maintain their place in the profitable niches of the industry through constantly cannibalising their market...

How sustainable that is time will tell, but some operators have shown it can work for at least the medium term.

I was enormously disappointed when they ditched rapid-rise when they shifted from 3x9 to 2x10-speed for their mountain bike groupset. The ergonomics on the final iteration were just superb. However, the Shadow+ clutch rear derailleurs were a significant improvement even though I grumbled at the time. I only dropped the chain twice in the 8 years I owned the bike.

Similarly with the shift to 1x12. I really don't like the bigger gap between ratios. But I am getting used to it, the body is adapting, I'm noticing thumb left pain has gone entirely, and I am quite comfortable using the dropper post much more.

Yes, change is annoying, but it does keep the brain healthier by forcing the creation of new neural pathways. .

[warthog1]

Yes, change is annoying, but it does keep the brain healthier by forcing the creation of new neural pathways. .

The entire reply was good, but I particularly appreciate that piece

[rkelsen]

I'll be very surprised if this leads to any major changes. Gearboxes have been tried many times before. This one is my favourite: https://www.ebykr.com/ernesto-colnago-p ... ept-cover/

Shimano are playing a risky game: hurtling headfirst into "motorcyclization" of bicycles (to use Grant Petersen's term) while burning their bridges behind them by discontinuing (or geolocking away) the stuff that 90% of the world actually wants.

Thanks for saying this.

I understand that they need a new selling point every year, so that Fred the Dentist is compelled to upgrade, but we're at pretty high levels of ridiculousness these days. For example; some bottom bracket "standards" only survived for one or two models before they were changed for something else. Where does that leave those unfortunate bike owners? They'll eventually have no choice but to buy a new bike to escape the rut they're in.

Improvements are always welcome, but changing for the sake of change never yields a good result.

Time will tell. We can only hope that they come to their senses, but my expectations are low.

[Mike Ayling]

I read some where that the reason Herr Rohloff designed his hub was because he was getting tired of having to clean his derailleur drivetrain every time he rode on the beach. May be complete bs of course.
Mary and I bought a Thorn touring tandem with Rohloff in 2012 and I liked the Rohloff so much that I bought a Thorn Mercury with Rohloff in 2016 and sold my Surly LHT.
The Rohloff likes a slack chain/belt and if it is too tight it can damage the hub.
The gear range on 3 X 9 is a lot wider than the Rohloff which has a constant 15% difference between each gear which is not good for those who like to hurry along with close ratios.
I enjoy not having to clean my drive train each time I get caught out in the rain.
I have not read of any catastrophic hub failures recently those documented were quite a few years ago.
Cost - AUD $ 2K, how does compare to a di2 electronic shifting system?

[ColinOldnCranky]

Minimal losses in the transmission of power are one of the essential properties ofa human powered vehicle.

If this new system doesn't lose any efficiency then, maybe.

But with derailleur systems and simple fixies enjoying efficiencies said to be around 98%, I am always a little wary of new products claiming to replace traditional chain and sprocket.

However, maybe it has a place on e-bikes.

[Nobody]

Improvements are always welcome, but changing for the sake of change never yields a good result.

Time will tell. We can only hope that they come to their senses, but my expectations are low.

Yes, many problems with new bikes these days. Internal cable routing creating maintenance issues. BBs, combined stem & bars and as said parts changing standards too quickly. Bikes just getting too expensive for what amounts for most people to just equipment for a form of exercise and/or recreation. To me it points to an industry that thinks the average person has more money to spend than they used to. Maybe that is the case. However a similar emphasis on high performance happened with windsurfing some decades ago and the industry pretty much priced and specialised itself into extinction. It got to the point where a basic setup was about $3K and to be fully setup with a range of boards, sails and associated equipment for every condition and wind range was likely closer to $10K.

Earlier I was thinking of getting a new bike. But it looks increasingly like I'll just stay with what I have and revisit the scenario once something major breaks. Even then, it might be just cheaper and easier to keep replacing with cheaper older spec stuff. I don't need high performance. I just need equipment that's cheap, reliable and low maintenance.

[brumby33]

I'll be very surprised if this leads to any major changes. Gearboxes have been tried many times before. This one is my favourite: https://www.ebykr.com/ernesto-colnago-p ... ept-cover/

Shimano are playing a risky game: hurtling headfirst into "motorcyclization" of bicycles (to use Grant Petersen's term) while burning their bridges behind them by discontinuing (or geolocking away) the stuff that 90% of the world actually wants.

Thanks for saying this.

I understand that they need a new selling point every year, so that Fred the Dentist is compelled to upgrade, but we're at pretty high levels of ridiculousness these days. For example; some bottom bracket "standards" only survived for one or two models before they were changed for something else. Where does that leave those unfortunate bike owners? They'll eventually have no choice but to buy a new bike to escape the rut they're in.

Improvements are always welcome, but changing for the sake of change never yields a good result.

Time will tell. We can only hope that they come to their senses, but my expectations are low.

Yes, many problems with new bikes these days. Internal cable routing creating maintenance issues. BBs, combined stem & bars and as said parts changing standards too quickly. Bikes just getting too expensive for what amounts for most people as just equipment for a form of exercise and/or recreation. To me it points to an industry that thinks the average person has more money to spend than they used to. Maybe that is the case. However a similar emphasis on high performance happened with windsurfing some decades ago and the industry pretty much priced and specialised itself into extinction. It got the point where a basic setup was about $3K and to be fully setup with a range of boards, sails and associated equipment for every condition and wind range was likely closer to $10K.

Earlier I was thinking of getting a new bike. But it looks increasingly like I'll just stay with what I have and revisit the scenario once something major breaks. Even then, it might be just cheaper and easier to keep replacing with cheaper older spec stuff. I don't need high performance. I just need equipment that's cheap, reliable and low maintenance.

Good Post Nobody, and I agree, the cost of bikes are becoming crazy and unneccessary, I don't really understand the price of those e-bikes with most of them in the 4-6K price range just because they have a electric motor and a battery but what would a similar bike cost without all that stuff, just an ordinary pushy.....less than $1K I bet.....My bike, one that cost me just under $3K is one that's robust enough to ride around the world so for what I use it for, will last forever and well and truly outlast me...that is value for money.

It seems in the bicycle Industry that many thing stay the same but it's called something else to make out it's something else...just give it another title like 29er instead of 700C, D or whatever.

Yes high end Comp bikes are in a different category altogether but if say a young bloke or daughter wanted to get into MTB racing etc, that will cost thousands to get equipped. I remember the first bike I bought myself from Paperboy money was $83.00 back in 1973 and had everything, lights, mudguards, 3 speed Sturmey Archer hub gears, analog speedo that ran off the front wheel by a spinning cable....and a rack at the back.....it was a bewdy and copped a hiding at times under the hands of a wild teenager and it continued to do paperboy duties.

The 3 speed Sturmey Archer was all the gearing my legs needed back then....3 whole speeds of it.

These days I need 63 speed like a recumbent

Even though I began this thread and irrespective of how much money I have, I don't think I'm be going Hub or Pinion anytime soon...my 9 speed Deore XT flicks through the gears nice and smooth thankyou very much but if the narrative changes and the Industry moves into a Rolhoff direction, I know my frame is able to cope with a Hub gearing, just have to change back wheel and front Chainwheel set.

cheers

brumby33

[RonK]

I don't really understand the price of those e-bikes with most of them in the 4-6K price range just because they have a electric motor and a battery but what would a similar bike cost without all that stuff, just an ordinary pushy.....less than $1K I bet.....My bike, one that cost me just under $3K is one that's robust enough to ride around the world so for what I use it for, will last forever and well and truly outlast me...that is value for money.

So take your ordinary $3K bike.
Add a 500w/hr battery - $1000
Add a motor - let’s say another $1000 but likely more
Your $3K bike is up to at least $5K
Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.
What’s not to understand?

[brumby33]

I don't really understand the price of those e-bikes with most of them in the 4-6K price range just because they have a electric motor and a battery but what would a similar bike cost without all that stuff, just an ordinary pushy.....less than $1K I bet.....My bike, one that cost me just under $3K is one that's robust enough to ride around the world so for what I use it for, will last forever and well and truly outlast me...that is value for money.

So take your ordinary $3K bike.
Add a 500w/hr battery - $1000
Add a motor - let’s say another $1000 but likely more
Your $3K bike is up to at least $5K
Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.
What’s not to understand?

Yeah but are the frames and other gear on a $5K e-bike as good as say the Vivente? Plus I'd be wanting my investment to do better than 25kph which i can do without a motor...only uphills is where it's useful anyways.

[Thoglette]

Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.

That’s up there with “disc brakes enabled wide tyres” in The Great Spins From Marketing list.

No such nonsense is required for an AU compliant e-bike.

[RonK]

I don't really understand the price of those e-bikes with most of them in the 4-6K price range just because they have a electric motor and a battery but what would a similar bike cost without all that stuff, just an ordinary pushy.....less than $1K I bet.....My bike, one that cost me just under $3K is one that's robust enough to ride around the world so for what I use it for, will last forever and well and truly outlast me...that is value for money.

So take your ordinary $3K bike.
Add a 500w/hr battery - $1000
Add a motor - let’s say another $1000 but likely more
Your $3K bike is up to at least $5K
Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.
What’s not to understand?

Yeah but are the frames and other gear on a $5K e-bike as good as say the Vivente? Plus I'd be wanting my investment to do better than 25kph which i can do without a motor...only uphills is where it's useful anyways.

The frame and components on a $5K ebike will be as good as your Vivente and probably better.
You need to compare apples to apples.
My $5K+ e-bike I’d rate against a Vivente any day.
BTW, e-bikes are NOT speed limited - they will go as fast as you can pedal them, just like any other bike.
Considering some of the other threads you’ve posted, perhaps you should be riding one.

[brumby33]

So take your ordinary $3K bike.
Add a 500w/hr battery - $1000
Add a motor - let’s say another $1000 but likely more
Your $3K bike is up to at least $5K
Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.
What’s not to understand?

Yeah but are the frames and other gear on a $5K e-bike as good as say the Vivente? Plus I'd be wanting my investment to do better than 25kph which i can do without a motor...only uphills is where it's useful anyways.

The frame and components on a $5K ebike will be as good as your Vivente and probably better.
You need to compare apples to apples.
My $5K+ e-bike I’d rate against a Vivente any day.
BTW, e-bikes are NOT speed limited - they will go as fast as you can pedal them, just like any other bike.
Considering some of the other threads you’ve posted, perhaps you should be riding one.

Yeah maybe...one day....

[craigg]

I don't really understand the price of those e-bikes with most of them in the 4-6K price range just because they have a electric motor and a battery but what would a similar bike cost without all that stuff, just an ordinary pushy.....less than $1K I bet.....My bike, one that cost me just under $3K is one that's robust enough to ride around the world so for what I use it for, will last forever and well and truly outlast me...that is value for money.

So take your ordinary $3K bike.
Add a 500w/hr battery - $1000
Add a motor - let’s say another $1000 but likely more
Your $3K bike is up to at least $5K
Then upgrade the frame, brakes and wheels to cope with the extra weight.
What’s not to understand?

Bicycles do seem somewhat overpriced when compared to something like a moped which can be had new for like $2k - http://www.scootershop.com.au/scootarelli-riviera-xr

And for your $2k it's road legal, has a headlight, battery, charging system, hydraulic disk brake, electric starter, transmission, 2 stroke piston engine, indicators, speedo blah blah blah. So why does a moped which has heaps more parts, and complicated parts at that cost significantly less than a base spec bicycle. !! BAN ME NOW FOR SWEARING !!, you wouldn't even get an ultegra di2 groupset for $2k so to me it seems bicycles are way overpriced.

$4k get's you a moped with 4 stroke fuel injected engine - so you get a computer, injector, fuel management system, electronic fuel pump with pressurised fuel lines, hydraulic disk brake, elextronic digital dashboard etc. Again way more bang for buck than a bicycle. Certain parts of the bicycle industry are would seem to be making excessive profits.

http://www.scootershop.com.au/sym-mio-50i

How can it possibly be that a moped is cheaper than a middle of the range electric bicycle?

Craig

[MichaelB]

...
How can it possibly be that a moped is cheaper than a middle of the range electric bicycle?

Craig

It's called volume (and a whole lot of tooling that has been paid for over the years, cheap materials, super cheap labour etc, etc), and also what the market will pay.

[Jean]

Bicycles do seem somewhat overpriced when compared to something like a moped which can be had new for like $2k - http://www.scootershop.com.au/scootarelli-riviera-xr

I also ride a scooter. My first one was a cheap Chinese one, imported and resold under a local brand name by an Australian company. That thing was something else, and I literally had parts fall off it when riding, including some very crucial pivot bolts. I patched it up, let the ATSB know what was afoot and (a little shamefully, but I couldn't afford not to) sold it. It should have gone to the wreckers.

The low price is down to mass-produced poor quality parts, shoddy engineering, lip service to safety, slapdash assembly and mass Asian markets. It's the motorised equivalent of an Aldi BSO. If you ever decide to get a scooter, buy Taiwanese, Japanese or Euro.

Trust me, the engineering and manufacturing of even a good 'entry-level' bike is light years ahead of that scooter, let alone a quality e-bike with a good battery and motor.

Back to the topic, I'd suspect that no other gear system will replace derailleurs until they are at least as reliable and as cheap. A good quality alloy derailleur doesn't cost much at RRP (a Centaur or 105 RD, for example, can be got for well under $100), let alone in bulk to a bike manufacturer. It seems unlikely that any internal gear system is going to match that soon.

[Tim]

And then of course there is this wonder of modern engineering which doesn't work and probably never will.
More so a wonder of marketing drivel designed to help flog grossly overpriced and completely unnecessary ceramic wheel bearings.

[Mr Purple]

One post and a link to an online casino. I see the post has already been reported, I'd advise not clicking on it in the meantime.