It is almost mandatory to assume that the totality of the reduction in cycling numbers post MHL is due exclusively to MHL's. This cannot possibly be verified, so why does it happen?
As usual that's a false negative assertion. Like claiming that those supporting a rail line between A and B believe that the lack of a rail line is the
only reason people drive from A to B. It's the sort of crap argument one expects from a Fox late night presenter.
baabaa wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 4:24 pm
Do I believe the Perth data based on the counting of one spot on a bridge over a river pre and post MHL?
Nope.
Don't disagree. The paucity of decent data pre- and post- MHLs is a key problem in any commentary on cycling in Australia. And reading the pre-MHL proposal papers are an exercise in making-s**t-up.
baabaa wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 4:24 pm
I guess I could come up with more perth focused factors but have given up as I tend to agree it is a pointless line in the sand as the data freaks just use the stats to throw up numbers to try and back a POV.
So just asserting stuff (like El Cheeto Grande or QAnon) is a better basis for making decisions? I don't think so.
I do agree a number of the observations you make (and they have statistical backing) and in general they were driven by planning decisions (and non-decisions). I'm old enough to have seen the transition from less-than-one-cars-per-household to one-car-per-adult+spares. I remember moving from a suburb which had public transport to a brand new "modern" one that basically didn't (and had no footpaths on major roads) at one point. And have had to set up a bus service for a workplace in an industrial estate that still has no public transport before 8:30 (prestart is at 7:30am)
Again, MHLs are only one in a series of policy errors that Australia continues to make in respect to transport (economically, healthwise and in terms of "liveability")
But back to the crux of the matter...
baabaa wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 4:24 pm
People just changed routes and habits because of other factors.Yes MHL may have stopped a few riders but at that point the people who did ride enjoyed it so much that it would take a heap more than the law to stop them riding 100% of the time.
Thanks for making the key point: the cycling-as-recreation riders (MTB*, roadies**, BMX, tourers) who were mostly
already wearing helmets continued. But those who stopped (almost by definition short trip utility riders), heck, they don't count. They're not committed enough. etc etc etc.
To return to your opening quote, the point is that MHLs
effectively curtail the adoption of cycling for ad-hoc short distance transport. That is, getting from A to B. Without activity-specific clothes. Without a shower at the end.
For those who do want to refer to some data nothing shows this more clearly than the fate of MHL bike hire schemes,which specifically target the casual, short distance rider.
Thsi typical Dutch scene is inconceivable in the context of MHLs.
No-MHLs are a long way from being the only policy initiative that the Netherlands has introduced since the "Kindermort" (child murder) protests of the '70s but proposing MHLs would have them choking on their herring in shock at the idea of someone suggesting something so bloody stupid.
Let me be clear: I'm not bagging helmets. They do what they do and any time I'm wearing clipless shoes or padded shorts I'm wearing a helmet. Which is every day on my commute. But it's important to understand that they are a nett negative for short distance utility cycling. (Which, we need to remember, is a gateway to "serious" riding. Also known in the West as "the rottnest effect")
*You can always rely on the MTB fraternity to turn up at any MHL hearing and earnestly express their support for MHLs (which, by definition, don't apply to their chosen form of bike use). Not surprisingly, people doing downhill MTB
choose to wear PPE. (Strange as it may seem, cyclists tend to pick the appropriate PPE even in the absence of MHLs)
**yeah, the roadies only adopted helmets when the TdF peleton adopted them. But what else did you expect?