Is the road toll falling due to COVID? (from: War on Cars)

[AdelaidePeter]

Not sure this deserves a seperate thread. There is an article in the online motoring page whichcar which half-heartedly (was gonna use a different adjective starting with A...) which goes through the numbers for fatal traffic incidents (they still call them accidents ) for March 2020 comparing them to other months and years.

Remembering most of the country is in lockdown or should be self isolating due to Coronavirus so there should be a lot less traffic on the road. So the reduced fatality figures were reduced but not as much as you might think.

Professor Max Cameron from Monash University Accident Research Centre says this is likely due to more people drink driving (most states have suspended static random breath tests for the foreseeable future because of Coronavirus) and more people speeding because the roads were less clogged with traffic.

Interesting read even if the figures aren't all that scientific

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-news/co ... -road-toll

Sorry, I just saw this. Yes I think it deserves a separate thread.

Australian road death rates for March of the last 5 years (2016 to 2020) have been: 110, 92, 113, 115, 100. So the drop from 115 to 100 may not be statistically significant, sadly.

However, restrictions didn't really kick in until late March. The April numbers may tell more.

Cyclist deaths for March were 4 (since 2016: 6, 4, 6, 4, 4) but the numbers are so low (statistically speaking, still horrible humanly speaking) that it is hard to read much into them

The injury numbers would be helpful because they would be large enough that they could tell us more; but they are harder to get.

[Gorilla Too]

Raw numbers do not always tell us a lot.
It is not until you dig down into the data and break them up into numbers in their various categories - cars, trucks, motorcyclists, cyclists, pedestrians - that you start to get a good picture. And that is just the start of it.
I also agree that the March numbers are not that wonderful but the April figures will be much more telling.

[Philistine]

I doubt if there are significantly more people driving under the influence during the current restrictions. For one thing, you can be stopped at random to check if your journey is necessary. Also, we are creatures of habit. Prior to RBT, some motorists were in the habit of driving to the pub or club, getting drunk, then driving home again, and random breath testing has weaned most of them away from this habit. I find it hard to imagine anyone saying to himself "there's no RBT, I'm going out to get legless". And in any case the pubs are shut!

Having said that, I have no problem with the police deciding it is too dangerous to continue with breath tests in the current climate - but how stupid was it to tell everybody about it?

[AdelaidePeter]

I find it hard to imagine anyone saying to himself "there's no RBT, I'm going out to get legless".

I do not find it hard to imagine at all, sadly.

[fat and old]

I find it hard to imagine anyone saying to himself "there's no RBT, I'm going out to get legless".

I do not find it hard to imagine at all, sadly.

No. Indeed I think that the sort of person who would drink/drug/act stoopid/drive is the type who would drive right now, regardless of the restrictions. In fact, after three weeks of nightworks/dayworks I know it. And now instead of a minority they are a significant minority bordering on a majority of drivers.

[antigee]

this article would suggest very much yes in California also some interesting numbers on the economic cost of collisions...here in Melbourne when I listen to the traffic bulletins always wondering what all that crap driving actually costs:

Since March 19, when Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the shutdown rules, car crashes have fallen by 15,000 per month, according to new research from the University of California, Davis, freeing up state resources and improving air quality to the best levels in years.

“We estimate that since the order went into effect, collisions and especially injury and fatality collisions have been reduced by half, from ~1,000 crashes and ~400 injury/fatal crashes per day to 500 and 200 per day, respectively,” the researchers said.

That 50% reduction in crashes meant plenty of money saved for the government and drivers alike.

“The reduction in numbers of all collisions, injury, and fatal collision was equivalent to a $US40 million/day savings in costs and about $US1 billion in savings since the Governor’s order went into effect,” the researchers said in an update on April 15 that further confirmed their original findings from April 1. Those estimated costs include property damage, lost time, insurance claims, and the cost of emergency response.

from: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cali ... ?r=US&IR=T

links to pdf of (brief) research paper: https://roadecology.ucdavis.edu/files/c ... ed_415.pdf

which suggests reduction might have been higher except had some heavy rain during study period

as an aside think it was on the UK site road.cc that I read that cyclist road deaths in the UK are coming out double the norm' during shutdown there

[AdelaidePeter]

Australian road death rates for March of the last 5 years (2016 to 2020) have been: 110, 92, 113, 115, 100. So the drop from 115 to 100 may not be statistically significant, sadly.

However, restrictions didn't really kick in until late March. The April numbers may tell more.

Cyclist deaths for March were 4 (since 2016: 6, 4, 6, 4, 4) but the numbers are so low (statistically speaking, still horrible humanly speaking) that it is hard to read much into them

The injury numbers would be helpful because they would be large enough that they could tell us more; but they are harder to get.

The numbers for April are out. Despite a couple of high-profile incidents, it was the 2nd lowest April, and 5th lowest month ever, with 75. So even though there have been better months (all time record low is 70 in Feb 2017, though 72 in April 2014 is the best per day), it looks like COVID is reducing road deaths a little. Last 5 Aprils: 113, 102, 88, 98, 75.

Sadly 6 of the deaths were cyclists, which is well above average (39 for all of 2019), though the numbers are so low it is hard to draw conclusions.

[g-boaf]

Looks like in NSW some areas might get "temporary" bike lanes as a measure to deter people from flooding public transport.

Temporary? Why not permanent!